Who to keep an eye on in the ANC leadership race

President Cyril Ramaphosa appears set to retain his position as leader of the ruling African National Congress at its elective conference next month, having secured support from the majority of the party’s structures, paving the way for a second term.

Ramaphosa received 2 037 nominations for the ANC presidency, while former Health Minister Zweli Mkhize received 916, the party’s head of elections, Kgalema Motlanthe, told reporters at the party’s Johannesburg headquarters on Tuesday.

Paul Mashatile, the ANC’s treasurer-general, appears to be a lock to replace David Mabuza as deputy leader, having received 1791 nominations, while Justice Minister Ronald Lamola received 427 and Oscar Mabuyane received 397.

According to Motlanthe, all of those nominated agreed to stand. More nominations can be made from the floor of the conference.

Ramaphosa succeeded Jacob Zuma as leader of Africa’s oldest political movement in December 2017, narrowly defeating Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma by 179 votes, and was elected president two months later. Winning re-election decisively would help him consolidate control of the party, giving him more leeway to follow through on a pledge to crack down on corruption and push through unpopular decisions needed to revive the struggling economy and rein in runaway state debt.

The ANC’s rules state that its leader must also run for president in national elections in 2024. Since winning the first multiracial elections in 1994, the party has led Africa’s most industrialised economy.

An independent panel is set to deliver a report on the scandal to Parliament next week, which will include a recommendation to the Speaker on whether lawmakers should consider impeaching him.

Parliament will debate the report on December 6, just 10 days before the ANC’s elective conference begins. Law enforcement agencies, the nation’s anti-graft ombudsman, and the central bank are all looking into the matter, and if Ramaphosa is charged, he will be forced to resign from his position under ANC rules.

Mkhize is going through his own difficulties; he was forced to resign from the cabinet in August of last year after some of his close associates were implicated in a tender scandal. He has not been charged criminally and denies any wrongdoing.

Secretary-General:

• Mdumiseni Ntuli, the ANC’s former secretary in the KwaZulu-Natal province: 1,225 nominations
• Phumulo Masualle, the deputy minister of public enterprises and the ANC’s chairman in the Eastern Cape province: 889 nominations
• Fikile Mbalula, the transport minister: 749 nominations

Deputy Secretary-General:

• Nomvula Mokonyane, a former minister of environmental affairs and former premier of the Gauteng province: 1 779 nominations
• Febe Potgieter-Gqubule, a former deputy chief of staff at the African Union Commission: 905 nominations

Chairperson:

• Stanley Mathabatha, the premier of the Limpopo province: 1 492 nominations
• Gwede Mantashe, the mineral resources and energy minister, and incumbent ANC chairman: 979 nominations
• David Masondo, the deputy finance minister: 501 nominations

Treasurer-General:

• Bejani Chauke, a special adviser to Ramaphosa: 552 nominations
• Pule Mabe, the ANC’s spokesman: 428 nominations
• Mzwandile Masina, the former mayor of the Ekurhuleni municipality: 348 nominations