South Africa has reached stage 7 load shedding

Eskom, South Africa’s power utility, reported that it temporarily entered stage 7 load shedding on Wednesday (22 February), following a similar step on Tuesday, but argues this does not reflect the larger timeline.

According to Eskom spokeswoman Sikonathi Mantshantsha’s daily information updates, the power provider lost nearly 7,000MW of electricity on Wednesday evening.

He verified to MyBroadband that this was definitely stage 7 load shedding, however it was not an overview of load shedding for the entire day, and so was not shown in the load shedding timetable.

He stated that the load-shedding stage announced by Eskom is an estimate of the amount of producing capacity in shortfall for the time period covered.

Mantshantsha stated that demand might sometimes surpass the previously announced load-shedding projection. This suggests that load shedding might enter stage 7 or perhaps go below stage 6 for a short period of time.

“As you will see in the figures, it is accurate to say at that particular time last night, load-shedding was stage 7,” he said. On a broader view, however, Eskom is load-shedding at stage 6, as previously announced.

Whether or if stage 7 is represented in the daily schedule, the loss of almost 7,000MW for the grid is a new low for the power utility.

The reports show that 7,045MW were reduced on Tuesday and 7,092MW were cut on Wednesday.

The system operator defines South Africa’s load shedding phases as representing 1,000MW of power. According to the group’s own standards, stage 7 load shedding may result in up to 7,000MW being shed.

With almost 7,000MW of load shedding, this would theoretically suggest stage 8 load shedding. Economists have suggested that when load curtailment and load reduction are included, even larger amounts of load shedding occur in practise.

For months, energy experts and analysts have warned that a move to planned stage 8 load shedding is probable, and that blackouts might reach this level by the winter months in the middle of the year.

While Eskom’s load shedding schedules now go up to stage 8, several experts have stated that they are completely arbitrary and that the amount of load shedding that might occur could exceed these levels.

This week, Eskom stated that the power shedding schedules and rules are being examined. Former Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter believes the country will not get beyond stage 8.