Brazil Poised to Overtake US as World's Largest Maize Exporter

Brazil is on track to overtake the United States as the world’s largest exporter of maize, also known as corn, in 2023. Crop production in the South American country has increased due to favourable weather conditions, genetically modified organisms (GMOs), and investments in agricultural equipment. Brazil is expected to produce a record 124.9 million tonnes of maize this year, up 10.4% from the previous year, with 76.3% of that being a second crop, or “safrinha,” according to the National Supply Company (Conab).

The opening of maize ethanol plants in 2017 boosted maize production by raising the price of the cereal grain and encouraging producers to invest more in “safrinha.” Brazilian farmers have acquired more fertilisers, genetically improved seeds, and farm machinery that allows for faster and more accurate planting, resulting in an increase in corn cultivation area, improved productivity, and a significant increase in production. Genetically modified corn varieties are now planted in almost all of Brazil’s cornfields.

Geopolitical events and climate-related issues in traditional corn powerhouses such as the United States, Argentina, and Ukraine have fueled demand for Brazilian maize. The opening of the Chinese market following the signing of an agreement between Brazil and Beijing in early 2022 has also increased demand. According to Joao Pedro Lopes of the commodity market analysis firm StoneX, with such production forecasts, “the country should increase its exportable surplus,” allowing it to sell more abroad.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, Brazil could export 52 million tonnes of corn this year, up from 31.9 million tonnes in 2022, dethroning the US, whose exports are expected to be 49 million tonnes. According to Enori Barbieri, vice president of the Brazilian Association of Corn Producers (Abramilho), Brazil is emerging as a strong competitor to the United States and has the capacity to increase production even further. “There are still a lot of lands available for this crop” on already opened agricultural plots, he said, adding that “our products can still progress.”

Brazil, however, faces additional challenges. Brazil must “succeed in increasing its investment in agricultural equipment,” “speed up sowing and harvesting,” and “continue to improve its logistical infrastructure to dispose of production” to improve its performance, warns Lucilio Alves, a researcher at the University of Sao Paulo’s Centre of Advanced Studies in Applied Economics.

In conclusion, due to favourable weather conditions, GMOs, and investments in agricultural equipment, Brazil is on track to become the world’s largest maize exporter, surpassing the United States in 2023. The rise in cereal grain prices, combined with the opening of the Chinese market, has increased demand for Brazilian maize. While Brazil has the capacity to increase output even further, it must improve its investment in agricultural equipment and logistical infrastructure in order to maintain productivity and competitiveness.